电化学储能电站出力置信度对电网不同场景运行效果的影响分析

王上行; 官亦标; 李相俊

doi:10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2025.0940

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电化学储能电站出力置信度对电网不同场景运行效果的影响分析

储能系统与工程 | 更新时间：2026-05-28

- 电化学储能电站出力置信度对电网不同场景运行效果的影响分析
- Analysis on the influence of output reliability of electrochemical energy storage power station on operation effect of different scenarios in power grid
- 储能科学与技术 2026年15卷第2期页码：570-578
- 作者机构：
  
  中国电力科学研究院有限公司，北京 100192
- 作者简介：
  
  王上行（1990—），男，博士，高级工程师，从事储能规划与运行，E-mail：415792354@qq.com。
- 基金信息：
  
  国家电网有限公司科技项目(5419-202323785A-3-8-KJ)
- DOI：10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2025.0940
  中图分类号： TM 911
- 收稿：2025-10-22，
  
  修回：2025-11-24，
  
  纸质出版：2026-02-28
- 稿件说明：
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王上行, 官亦标, 李相俊. 电化学储能电站出力置信度对电网不同场景运行效果的影响分析[J]. 储能科学与技术, 2026, 15(2): 570-578.

WANG Shangxing, GUAN Yibiao, LI Xiangjun. Analysis on the influence of output reliability of electrochemical energy storage power station on operation effect of different scenarios in power grid[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2026, 15(2): 570-578.
王上行, 官亦标, 李相俊. 电化学储能电站出力置信度对电网不同场景运行效果的影响分析[J]. 储能科学与技术, 2026, 15(2): 570-578. DOI： 10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2025.0940.

WANG Shangxing, GUAN Yibiao, LI Xiangjun. Analysis on the influence of output reliability of electrochemical energy storage power station on operation effect of different scenarios in power grid[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2026, 15(2): 570-578. DOI： 10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2025.0940.

摘要

随着我国电网中具有波动性与间歇性的新能源渗透率不断提升，电网安全稳定运行面临着愈发严峻的挑战。电化学储能电站作为提升系统灵活性与可靠性的关键手段，其出力能力的可靠性将直接影响电网调度运行效果。本工作提出了一种基于核密度估计的储能电站出力置信度评估方法，并结合调频、紧急功率支撑与调峰等典型电网场景，从功率响应偏差、响应时间、可调控能量3个维度分析了不同置信度对电网运行效果的影响。相关分析结果表明，功率响应偏差置信度对电网调频、响应时间置信度对紧急功率支撑以及可调控能量置信度对电网调峰会造成显著影响。本研究可为规模化电化学储能接入下的电网安全经济运行提供理论和实践指导，推动电化学储能可靠经济调用。

Abstract

With the increasing penetration of volatile and intermittent renewable energy in China's power grid

ensuring safe and stable grid operation has become increasingly challenging. As a key technology for enhancing system flexibility and reliability

the output performance of electrochemical energy storage power stations

and its reliability

directly affects grid dispatch performance and operational efficiency. This paper develops a confidence-level assessment method for the output capability of energy storage power stations based on kernel density estimation. Combined with typical grid operation scenarios

including frequency regulation

emergency power support

and peak shaving

the impacts of different confidence levels on grid operation are systematically analyzed from three dimensions: power response deviation

response time

and adjustable energy. The analysis results indicate that the confidence level of power response deviation has a significant impact on grid frequency regulation

whereas the confidence level of response time predominantly affects emergency power support

and the confidence level of adjustable energy plays a key role in grid peak shaving. This research can provide both theoretical and practical guidance for the safe and economic operation of power grids under large-scale integration of electrochemical energy storage

thereby promoting the reliable and economical dispatch of energy storage resources.

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