基于日前电价预测的热泵耦合储热系统柔性控制策略研究

刘泰吉; 窦研哲; 李宁; 徐宝萍; 王锡

doi:10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2026.0799

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基于日前电价预测的热泵耦合储热系统柔性控制策略研究

XXXX | 更新时间：2026-10-24

- 基于日前电价预测的热泵耦合储热系统柔性控制策略研究
- Flexible Control Strategy of Heat Pump-Thermal Storage Systems Using Forecasted Day-Ahead Electricity Trading Prices
- 储能科学与技术 2026年页码：1-13
- 作者机构：
  
  1.华北电力大学，北京 102206
  2.建科公共设施运营管理有限公司，北京 100120
- 作者简介：
  
  刘泰吉（2002—），男，在读硕士研究生，研究方向为储热系统柔性调控，E-mail：ltj18763301300@163.com ；
  徐宝萍，副教授，研究方向为区域能源规划与柔性调控，E-mail：xubp@ncepu.edu.cn 。
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金(52278106)
- DOI：10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2026.0799
  中图分类号： TU 832
- 收稿：2026-09-11，
  
  修回：2026-10-23，
  
  网络首发：2026-10-23，
- 稿件说明：
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刘泰吉, 窦研哲, 李宁, 等. 基于日前电价预测的热泵耦合储热系统柔性控制策略研究[J]. 储能科学与技术, XXXX, XX(XX): 1-13.

Liu Taiji, Dou Yanzhe, Li Ning, et al. Flexible Control Strategy of Heat Pump-Thermal Storage Systems Using Forecasted Day-Ahead Electricity Trading Prices[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, XXXX, XX(XX): 1-13.
刘泰吉, 窦研哲, 李宁, 等. 基于日前电价预测的热泵耦合储热系统柔性控制策略研究[J]. 储能科学与技术, XXXX, XX(XX): 1-13. DOI： 10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2026.0799.

Liu Taiji, Dou Yanzhe, Li Ning, et al. Flexible Control Strategy of Heat Pump-Thermal Storage Systems Using Forecasted Day-Ahead Electricity Trading Prices[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, XXXX, XX(XX): 1-13. DOI： 10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2026.0799.

摘要

需求响应（DR）是实现电力供需实时平衡的关键技术，而实时电价（RTP）作为灵活有效的DR信号，能精准反映系统运行状态。然而，对于耦合相变储热（PCTS）的热泵供暖系统，RTP驱动的DR控制需同时应对电价、热负荷及储/放热特性的时变耦合，对控制方法提出严峻挑战。为此，本文提出一种面向RTP的新型DR控制策略，应用于热泵耦合PCTS供暖系统。基于TRNSYS建立普通散热器、相变散热器和相变墙体三类系统，提出以日前交易电价预测为输入的启发式控制策略，并分析比较不同末端、控制策略与电价机制的影响。相较比例控制，启发式控制使三类系统耗电量分别降低29.5%、14.0%和15.4%，电费分别降低65.2%、49.5%和57.3%；两类相变系统在交易电价下均实现100%高峰期负荷转移，峰谷差降低约54.5%。相变散热器系统因蓄放热响应更快，柔性优于相变墙体系统。上述结果是在北京寒冷地区单房间模型、严寒期典型5 d、18~22℃舒适约束及确定性气象、负荷和设备参数条件下获得；交易电价仅作为日前调度信号，相关电费为价格信号加权电能量成本，定量结果不宜直接外推至其他气候区、建筑类型或终端结算场景。在上述适用边界内，研究结果可为热泵耦合储热供暖系统的需求响应控制提供参考。

Abstract

Demand response (DR) relies on real-time electricity price (RTP) as a highly effective signal for supply-demand balancing

yet its application to heat-pump systems integrated with phase-change thermal storage (PCTS) is challenged by coupled temporal variations in price

thermal load

and storage dynamics. This study proposes a novel RTP-driven DR control strategy for HP-PCTS heating systems. Three TRNSYS models—a conventional radiator

phase-change radiator

and phase-change wall—are developed. A day-ahead-price-based heuristic control is proposed. Compared with proportional control

the proposed method reduces power consumption by 29.5%

14.0%

and 15.4%

and electricity costs by 65.2%

49.5%

and 57.3%

respectively. Both PCM systems achieve 100% peak-period load shifting under trading prices and reduce the peak-valley difference by about 54.5%. The faster PCM radiator provides better flexibility. These results are limited to a deterministic Beijing single-room model

a representative five-day severe-winter period

and an 18—22℃ comfort constraint. Trading price is a dispatch signal

not a billing tariff; quantitative results require recalibration for other climates

buildings

equipment

or billing contexts.

关键词

Keywords

references

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