货架仓储场景下锂离子电池热失控多米诺传播模拟与风险评价

刘小勇; 张震渝; 刘小杰; 王珺楠

doi:10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2026.0581

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

货架仓储场景下锂离子电池热失控多米诺传播模拟与风险评价

储能 | 更新时间：2026-09-16

- 货架仓储场景下锂离子电池热失控多米诺传播模拟与风险评价
- Simulation and Risk Assessment of Thermal Runaway Domino Propagation for Lithium-Ion Batteries in Rack Storage Scenarios
- 储能科学与技术 2026年页码：1-11
- 作者机构：
  
  1.安徽理工大学安全科学与工程学院，安徽淮南 232000
  2.清华大学合肥公共安全研究院，检验检测中心，安徽合肥 230601
  3.安徽建筑大学，安徽合肥 230601
- 作者简介：
  
  刘小勇（1980—），男，博士，正高级工程师，研究方向为公共安全方向，E-mail：liuxiaoyong@tsinghua-hf.edu.cn；
  刘小杰，研究方向为锂电池热失控，E-mail：liuxiaojie@tsinghua-hf.edu.cn。
- 基金信息：
  
  应急部重点科技计划项目(KT20260323002)
- DOI：10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2026.0581
  中图分类号： TM 911
- 收稿：2026-07-06，
  
  修回：2026-09-03，
  
  网络首发：2026-09-15，
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
刘小勇, 张震渝, 刘小杰, 等. 货架仓储场景下锂离子电池热失控多米诺传播模拟与风险评价[J]. 储能科学与技术, XXXX, XX(XX): 1-11.

Liu Xiaoyong, ZhangZhenyu , Liu Xiaojie, et al. Simulation and Risk Assessment of Thermal Runaway Domino Propagation for Lithium-Ion Batteries in Rack Storage Scenarios[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, XXXX, XX(XX): 1-11.
刘小勇, 张震渝, 刘小杰, 等. 货架仓储场景下锂离子电池热失控多米诺传播模拟与风险评价[J]. 储能科学与技术, XXXX, XX(XX): 1-11. DOI： 10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2026.0581.

Liu Xiaoyong, ZhangZhenyu , Liu Xiaojie, et al. Simulation and Risk Assessment of Thermal Runaway Domino Propagation for Lithium-Ion Batteries in Rack Storage Scenarios[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, XXXX, XX(XX): 1-11. DOI： 10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2026.0581.

摘要

针对货架仓储场景下锂离子电池热失控及其多米诺传播风险，构建了一种耦合动态热辐射叠加效应、剩余失效时间修正策略及喷淋响应机制的半经验预测模型。设计并开展了高镍三元电池货架火灾实验，设置两种热失控初始位置（边缘起火与中间起火）及两种洒水喷头触发温度（68℃与93℃）共四种工况。模型准确复现四种工况下的热失控电芯数量，喷淋启动时间平均绝对误差9.75 s，偏差均在实验波动范围内。基于模拟结果提出单元电芯多米诺演化风险指数（Unit Cell-Domino Evolution Risk Index，U-DERI）与电芯货架布局多米诺风险指数（Cell Rack Layout-Domino Risk Evolution Index，L-DERI），量化评价表明：边缘起火工况的风险（68℃洒水喷头配置U-DERI为13.98，中风险；93℃洒水喷头配置U-DERI为18.11，高风险）显著高于中间起火工况（68℃洒水喷头配置U-DERI为1.78，极低风险；93℃洒水喷头配置U-DERI为2.65，低风险）。93℃洒水喷头配置货架整体风险（L-DERI为10.86，中风险）高于68℃洒水喷头配置（L-DERI为8.05，低风险）。该模型及双层级指标可为锂电池的仓储消防优化设计及分级防控提供工程参考。

Abstract

A semi‑empirical prediction model is established for lithium‑ion battery thermal runaway and its domino propagation risk in rack‑warehouse scenarios

which couples the superposition effect of dynamic thermal radiation

residual failure time correction strategy and sprinkler response mechanism. Rack‑scale fire experiments are performed using high‑nickel ternary lithium‑ion batteries. Four test conditions are designed by combining two initial thermal‑runaway positions (edge‑cell ignition and middle‑cell ignition) and two activation temperatures of water sprinklers (68℃ and 93℃). The model accurately reproduces the number of thermally runaway cells under all four conditions

with a mean absolute error of 9.75 s for sprinkler activation time

and all deviations fall within experimental fluctuation ranges. Based on simulation outputs

the Unit‑Cell Domino Evolution Risk Index (U‑DERI) and the Cell‑Rack Layout Domino Risk Evolution Index (L‑DERI) are proposed. Quantitative evaluation demonstrates that the risk under edge‑ignition conditions is markedly higher than that under middle‑ignition conditions. For edge‑ignition scenarios

the U‑DERI reaches 13.98 (moderate risk) for the 68℃ sprinkler setup and 18.11 (high risk) for the 93℃ sprinkler setup. For middle‑ignition scenarios

the U‑DERI is 1.78 (very‑low risk) at 68℃ sprinkler activation and 2.65 (low risk) at 93℃ sprinkler activation. The overall rack‑level risk with 93℃ sprinklers (L‑DERI = 10.86

moderate risk) is higher than that with 68℃ sprinklers (L‑DERI = 8.05

low risk). The proposed model and two‑tiered risk indices can provide engineering references for optimized fire‑protection design and hierarchical risk prevention‑control of lithium‑ion battery warehouses.

关键词

Keywords

references

杨明,黄旭,陆晖,等. 锂离子电池衰减机理及老化前后热失控行为研究进展[J]. 消防科学与技术,2026,45(2):39-48.

Yang Ming, Huang Xu, Lu Hui, et al. Research progress on degradation mechanism and thermal runaway behavior of lithium-ion batteries before and after aging[J]. Fire Science and Technology, 2026, 45(2): 39-48.

李刚,张修鹏,常伟达,等. 高温条件下NCM锂离子电池热失控释放气体的爆炸特性[J]. 东北大学学报(自然科学版),2025,46(4):78-86.

Li Gang, Zhang Xiupeng, Chang Weida, et al. Explosion characteristics of gases released from thermal runaway of NCM lithium-ion batteries under high temperature conditions[J]. Journal of Northeastern University (Natural Science Edition), 2025, 46(4): 78-86.

曾垂辉,吴军,甘艳,等. 方壳磷酸铁锂锂离子电池热失控不同阶段产热产气机理[J]. 储能科学与技术,2026,15(6):2395-2404.

Zeng Chuhui, Wu Jun, Gan Yan, et al. Mechanism of heat and gas generation at different stages of thermal runaway in prismatic lithium-ion batteries with lithium iron phosphate[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2026, 15(6): 2395-2404.

Archibald E,Han K S,Ezekoye O A. Thermal Runaway Propagation in a Prismatic Lithium-Ion Battery Module with Inter-Cell Air Gaps: Large-Scale Compartment Experiments[J]. Fire Technology,2026,62(4):86.

Hu J,Tang X,Zhu X,et al. Suppression of thermal runaway induced by thermal abuse in large-capacity lithium-ion batteries with water mist[J]. Energy,2024,286:129669.

程志翔,曹伟,户波,等. 储能用大容量磷酸铁锂电池热失控行为及燃爆传播特性[J]. 储能科学与技术,2023,12(3):923-933.

Cheng Zhixiang, Cao Wei, Hu Bo, et al. Thermal runaway behavior and explosion propagation characteristics of large-capacity lithium iron phosphate batteries for energy storage[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2023, 12(3): 923-933.

Shi H,Zhang S,Li K,et al. Thermal runaway in lithium-ion batteries: a critical review of mechanisms, models, early warning systems, and safety strategies[J]. Applied Energy,2026,426:128706.

Jiang Y,Jiang Y,Wang P. A review on mitigating thermal runaway propagation in battery packs: from mechanisms to modeling and design optimization[J]. Energy Advances,2026,5(6):777-809.

Hu Z,He X,Restuccia F,et al. Numerical study of scale effects on self-heating ignition of lithium-ion batteries stored in boxes, shelves and racks[J]. Applied Thermal Engineering,2021,190:116780.

徐成善,李涵,王炎,等. 双层储能电池火蔓延特性及触发过程能量传递机制研究[J]. 储能科学与技术,2025,14(9):3552-3563.

Xu Chengshan, Li Han, Wang Yan, et al. Research on fire spread characteristics and energy transfer mechanism during triggering process of double-layer energy storage batteries[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2025, 14(9): 3552-3563.

Xu Y,Lu J,Zhang P,et al. Thermal runaway and flame propagation of lithium-ion battery in confined spaces: Experiments and simulations[J]. Journal of Energy Storage,2025,117:116154.

Ouyang D,Huang J,Zheng Y,et al. Numerical simulation and analysis of the effect of charging and discharging on the thermal runaway of lithium-ion batteries under external heating conditions[J]. Applied Thermal Engineering,2025,274:126616.

Wang S,Wang G,Ma D,et al. Numerical simulation of initial gas-jet fire evolution under thermal runaway of lithium-ion batteries[J]. Journal of Energy Storage,2025,114:115897.

Zhang X,Yao J,Zhu L,et al. Experimental and simulation investigation of thermal runaway propagation in lithium-ion battery pack systems[J]. Journal of Energy Storage,2024,77:109868.

Zeng D,Gagnon L,Wang Y. Network thermal-runaway propagation model-An experimental and modeling study[J]. Fire Safety Journal,2023,140:103899.

杨娟,贾燕,李文静,等. 排布构型对锂电池组热失控传播的影响研究[J/OL]. 储能科学与技术,2026-03-31. https://link.cnki.net/doi/10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2026.0083.

Yang Juan, Jia Yan, Li Wenjing, et al. Study on the influence of arrangement configuration on thermal runaway propagation in lithium-ion battery packs[J/OL]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2026-03-31. https://link.cnki.net/doi/10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2026.0083.

李晋,王青松,孔得朋,等. 锂离子电池储能安全评价研究进展[J]. 储能科学与技术,2023,12(7):2282-2301.

Li Jin, Wang Qingsong, Kong Depeng, et al. Research progress on safety evaluation of lithium-ion battery energy storage[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2023, 12(7): 2282-2301.

Xie J,Li J,Wang J,et al. Fire risk assessment in lithium-ion battery warehouse based on the Bayesian network[J]. Process Safety and Environmental Protection,2023,176:101-114.

陈黎明,姜海英,侯喜利,等. 新能源汽车动力锂电池仓库火灾安全风险分析与管控措施[J]. 黑龙江交通科技,2025,48(8):96-99, 103.

Chen Liming, Jiang Haiying, Hou Xili, et al. Fire safety risk analysis and control measures for power lithium-ion battery warehouse of new energy vehicles[J]. Heilongjiang Transportation Science and Technology, 2025, 48(8): 96-99, 103.

荣路清. 18650型锂离子电池仓库储存安全性研究[D]. 中国科学技术大学,2024.

Rong Luqing. Study on storage safety of 18650 lithium-ion batteries in warehouses[D]. University of Science and Technology of China, 2024.

李金国,高增梁,刘红,等. 双型腔模具加热系统热传导多源项反演与实验研究[J]. 轻工机械,2018,36(3):8-13.

Li Jinguo, Gao Zengliang, Liu Hong, et al. Inversion and experimental study on multi-source terms of heat conduction in heating system of double-cavity mold[J]. Light Industry Machinery, 2018, 36(3): 8-13.

Ma M,Wang S,Jiang H,et al. Study on the thermal radiation tolerance characteristics of lithium-ion batteries[J]. RSC Advances,2025,15(36):29500-29508.

Chen H,Chen G,Xiong C,et al. An inherent safety assessment tool for storage tank farm layout planning based on dynamic propagation modeling simulation of fire domino effects[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2025,256:110797.

浏览量

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

锂离子电池热失控监测与预警的气敏技术研究进展

石墨负极界面SEI膜与锂离子电池热失控

三元锂离子电池组热失控阻隔及其传热特性实验研究

锂离子电池中的智能安全电解液研究进展

磷酸铁锂和三元锂电池外部过热条件下的热失控特性